Fraction of a grid cell covered by ice (grounded or floating) in
the year 3007. Values less than or equal to 16% are masked.

=== Original Data Source ===
Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium using Large Ensemble Simulations, spatial time series, 2008-3007.

Citation publication abstract: The Greenland Ice Sheet holds
around 7.2 meters of sea-level equivalent. In recent decades rising
atmosphere and ocean temperatures have led to an acceleration in
mass loss, adding an average of about 0.5 millimeters per year to
global mean sea-level between 1991 and 2015. Current ice margin
recession in Greenland is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, the
large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the ice sheet
interior. Recent progress in measuring ice thickness is enabling
models to reproduce the complex flow patterns found in outlet
glaciers, a key step towards realistic projections. Here we pair an
outlet glacier resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive
uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland's contribution to
sea-level over the next millennium under different climate forcings.
We find that Greenland could contribute 5-33 centimeters to
sea-level by 2100 and 11-155 centimeters by 2200, with discharge
from outlet glaciers contributing 6-45% of the total mass loss. Our
analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are
dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface
processes, followed by ice dynamics, whereas uncertainties in ocean
conditions play a minor role, particularly in the long term. We
project that Greenland will very likely become ice-free within a
millennium without significant reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions.

This dataset compilation contains the simulations for the manuscript
"Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next
millennium" prepared with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM).

This dataset provides the likelihood of a pixel being ice covered at
the year 3007 for the RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways)
2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 for LES (Large Ensemble Simulations).

Citation:
Andy Aschwanden. 2019. Contribution of the Greenland Ice
Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium using Large Ensemble
Simulations, spatial time series, 2008-3007. Arctic Data Center.
doi:10.18739/A29G5GD39.

Citation URL:
https://doi.org/10.18739/A29G5GD39